The current international situation and the military security of Russia

International Security and Armed Conflicts

Institute of International Relations

University of Warsaw

 

 

 

The current international situation and the military security of Russia.

 

 

 

 

Student: Artem Lazarenko

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Index

     Introduction……………………………………………………….

Chapter 1. The current international situation ....................................................... 
             1.1 Trends in the military-political situation ................................................ 

Chapter 2. Military security ..................................................................  
             1.1 Content of the military security its levels .............................................................

             1.2 The basic principles of military security of Russia ..................................... 

Conclusion ......................................................... 

Notes .............................................................. 

Bibliographical references ............................................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction

 
The international situation in the world today is characterized by a set of sharp contradictions of the political, economic, social and historical nature. In recent years, more and more states insistently manifest their will to prevent a deeper integration process between Russia and other CIS countries.

As a result, the active process of building new power centers near the borders of Russia is activated confrontation over access to natural, energy, scientific, technical, human and other resources of the former Soviet Union. At the turn of the 2020´s, Russia could become the main arena of struggle for sources of raw materials and other natural resources.

Under these conditions, it is of vital importance for the Russian Federation the issue of military security, without which the dynamic development of the country seems to be impaired. Therefore, I propose to understand the current military and political situation in the world and its main trends of development, and to analyze the nature, structure and main contents of the military security of the Russian Federation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The current international situation

Despite some positive changes in recent decades, such as the end of the "cold war", the improvement of relations between Russia and the United States made ​​progress in the disarmament process, the world has not become more stable and secure. [1] In place of the old ideological confrontation came geopolitical rivalry of new centers of power, the opposition ethnic groups, religions and civilizations. . According to The SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 this rivalry has been changing some long-term trends, we have a different conflict environment, we have “important shifts in the scale, intensity and duration of armed conflict around the world, and in the principal actors involved in violence.”[2] At this point, it is crucial to understand that the international situation has undergone such qualitative changes that have not been completed and fully understood. Well, I will still try to identify some items. In the current conditions on the change in the military-political situation in the world are strongly influenced by some of the processes, the main of which are the following:

First: the central phenomenon of a global process for the future is globalization, the essence of which is the process of submission of all mankind to the power of the Western world as a whole in the face of a variety of financial, economic and political supranational organizations with the central role the United States. However, one superpower does not mean a uni-polar world. The United States does not resolve everything by themselves.  According to Huntington: “we are living in a strange hybrid system, a uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers. The settlement of key international issues requires action by the single superpower but always with some combination of other major states.” At the top the United States with preeminence in every domain of power with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in every part of the world. At a second level are major regional powers that are preeminent in areas of the world without being able to extend their interests and capabilities as globally as the United States. They include the German-French combo in Europe, Russia in Eurasia, China and in East Asia, India in South Asia, Iran in Southwest Asia, Brazil in Latin America, and South Africa and Nigeria in Africa. At a third level are secondary regional powers whose interests often conflict with the more powerful regional states, the contenders: Britain in relation to the German-French combination, Ukraine in relation to Russia, Japan in relation to China, South Korea in relation to Japan, Pakistan in relation to India, Saudi Arabia in relation to Iran, and Argentina in relation to Brazil. [3] It is now quite clearly manifest contradiction of the future of the world - the U.S. desire and its closest allies to dominate the international community, while the vast majority of countries will engage in the construction of a multipolar world. This may result in the future world will be less stable and more unpredictable. In countries with a low level of economic, scientific and cultural development, which globalism transformed into a prosperous soil for capitalism, there is a spontaneous protest, which finds a wide variety of forms up to terrorism.

The second: the process of separation of humanity based on their cultural and ethnic and religious lines. The earlier confrontation between the East-West is transformed into a North-South or Christianity-Islamism.

The third: significantly increased the importance of non-state actors in international relations to determine the nature of the foreign policy priorities of different countries of the world. Non-governmental organizations, international movements and communities, intergovernmental organizations and informal "clubs" have a broad and sometimes contradictory impact on the policies of individual states. Russia is committed to active participation in major international and intergovernmental organizations to provide different aspects of its foreign policy interests and security interests.

Fourth: contemporary global demographic trends point to a rapid decrease in the relative abundance of the population in industrialized countries. The UN estimates that by 2025 the U.S. population will be slightly lower than in Nigeria and Iran equal with Japan, the number of Ethiopians in two times higher than the number of residents of France, and Canada will skip forward Madagascar, Nepal and Syria. The share of the population in all developed countries of the West will not exceed the population of a country such as India. Therefore, the claim of "small" countries in terms of population to dominate the world, or the role of full-fledged regional leaders be contested and attacked.

Fifth: intensified the struggle for jobs on a global scale. Currently in the world there are 800 million unemployed or underemployed, and their number increases every year by millions of people. The main flows of migration of the unemployed are poorly developed regions in the developed countries. At present, outside the countries where they were born, but which retained their ethnic identity, are already more than 100 million people, which causes a "demographic aggression".

Sixth: becomes a reality the implementation of international operations for the use of force outside the traditional military-political organizations. Military force is increasingly used as part of coalitions formed on a temporary basis. Russia also advocates strict compliance with international law and would join such a coalition only if requested by its foreign policy interests.

Seventh: dangerous trend in terms of threats to the peace is the growing arms race [3], the spread of nuclear and missile technologies. If the initial growth of the military capacity of developing countries was aimed at countering the neighboring states in the region, in the new environment (especially in view of U.S. and NATO actions in Iraq and Yugoslavia), the military-technical policy of these states is directed and to be protected from similar actions of global and regional centers of power. Here it would be useful to recall the Iraqi case. As we know, the U.S. military intervention was justified by the fact that Iraq has violated and ignored the rules of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the treaty that created the current nuclear world order that the U.S. and the "rest of world" solemnly undertook to defend in 1968. As we know, no weapons of mass destruction were found. Meanwhile, some countries took their conclusions: "The only obvious way to curb the armed forces of the United States is in the possession of its own nuclear arsenal."[4] Now, we understand better all those efforts that Iran and North Korea have done to develop their nuclear programs. Of course, we are in the presence of a paradox: the fact that Americans defend the current nuclear world order with nails and teeth, which often leads to interventions and unilateral decisions, leads other countries insist increasingly on their nuclear programs. In fact, today the nuclear world order is very fragile. North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan are three main challenges to this world order. As the recovery of the Russian economy and tightening its policy to protect its national interests, these weapons could be directed against it. Therefore, one of the most important issues of military security of Russia becoming a problem of balance levels of strategic offensive and defensive weapons, not only to the traditional geopolitical rival (U.S. and NATO), but also with the growing military power of regional centers of power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trends in the military-political situation

In general, for the near future in the military-political situation in certain regions of the world may emerge the following trends. 
In the West, the characteristic features of the military-political situation is the revitalization of the NATO alliance for securing a leading role in the region, the adaptation of new members of the alliance, further reorientation of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Baltic states to the West, the deepening of integration processes in the region as whole, and as at the subregional level.

Military and U.S. policy in Europe will aim to maintain and strengthen its position here on the background of creation of a new European security system. According to the views of the White House, Nato will be a central component of the Alliance. Already, we can assume that the U.S. policy on the implementation of its foreign policy agenda in Europe will be tightened in the first place in order to weaken the influence of Russia in solving European problems.

It is promoted and will contribute to the next expansion of NATO. Thus, countries that are not yet members of NATO, turned into a "sanitary cordon" against Russia. These countries are considered in the United States as the most important strategic allies, which are used to put pressure on Russia. Further expansion of NATO to the east will lead to the fact that this union, finally engulfing the country "sanitary cordon" even closer to the borders of Russia.

In recent years, NATO leaders are actively considering the issue of the inclusion of Ukraine into the alliance. NATO's relations with Ukraine began to develop in 1991, when it gained its sovereignty and became a member of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1994, Ukraine joined the program "Partnership for Peace", and in 1997 signed a "Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine." Ukraine is actively preparing for the transition to NATO standards in many spheres of military and security, and retrain its troops. Ukraine has a joint working group of the NATO-Ukraine military reform, Ukrainian troops are taking part in the exercises conducted by NATO. March 17, 2004 the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine adopted a decision on the possibility of NATO troops right quick access to Ukraine and transit, if necessary for the implementation of common policies alliance. In March 2006, the President of Ukraine signed a decree "On the establishment of an interdepartmental commission to prepare for the country's accession to NATO." Officially, it was stated that Ukraine intends to join NATO in 2008, but the attempt was unsuccessful.

For the Russian Federation, the involvement of Ukraine in NATO is a negative factor. After all, Ukraine was part of Russia from the XVII century. In Ukraine are millions of Russian, as well as those who consider Russian their native language (nearly half of Ukraine). Modern Russian public opinion can not imagine Ukraine as a member of NATO, whose reputation for most Russians is negative. It seems that in these conditions the Russian Federation must use all available means to prevent engagement of the brotherly people of Ukraine into the mainstream is clearly anti-Russian policy of NATO. Otherwise, the security interests of the Russian military will suffer significant damage.

In general, the main focus of the Alliance towards the CIS is to prevent the consolidation of the Commonwealth states around the Russian Federation, the strengthening of its economic and military power and the weakening of the structure of the CIS as a whole. In the South, in the period under review will remain unfavorable trends in the development of the military-political situation (MPS), which is connected with the instability of the situation in the Central Asian states of the CIS and other foreign countries (Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan), and with the internal problems of the Russian Federation, which are based on national, ethnic and religious factors. It should be noted that the current situation on the southern borders of the Russian Federation has not narrowly regional nature - it is determined by a host of conflicting problems of wide international plan, including in the context of the strategic relations of Russia - West.

In the development of MPS in the region will be dominated by the tendency to aggravation both interstate and intrastate conflicts. One of its special features is the desire of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan to weaken Russia. Development of the situation will be under steadfast attention the Western states and especially the United States, whose leadership is primarily seeking to preserve and strengthen its control over the production and transportation of energy resources to world markets.

A characteristic feature of the development of MPS in this region will be the desire of most countries located here to use the religious factor to ensure their interests. Activation of the spread of Islamic extremism may have a negative impact on Russia, and especially in the areas where the population is predominantly Muslim.

A new factor in the balance of forces and the military-political situation as a whole was a U.S. military operation in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now more and more clearly became apparent goal of U.S. policy - under the guise of fighting terrorism at the same time to establish control over vital for the economy of the West, the region where they are concentrated  world´s largest energy reserves.

Another special geopolitical group is formed by Central Asian states. Despite their participation in the CIS, those countries are having a powerful geopolitical influence from the South - from Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan. By virtue of its internal political instability they may long remain a source of potential or actual tension. These states are commonly called "soft underbelly" of Russia due to the fact that they are extremely weak actors in international relations because of the serious economic difficulties, political instability, and because of the presence of ethnic, religious and territorial issues. Russia has been increasingly engaged in constructing pipelines and asserting themselves in the Caspian region, displaying its might through military exercises designed to secure key oil- producing regions and discourage acts of terrorism [5].  But on the other hand, allocation of U.S. and NATO military facilities on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and possibly other countries in the region leading to the leading to the displacement of Russia from there and consolidation of the West in its geopolitical interests: the Cold War is over, geopolitical rivalry continues.

Although U.S. officials often say about the end of the Cold War, however, the Russian Federation is still seen as enemy, something that we can easily see if we analyze policy documents in the military field m documents. If we remember the report made by Rumsfeld in 2002, we will realize all the uncertainty that envole relation to Russia and the U.S. and its national security. According to this report there are different types of threats to U.S. security. The first group is the immediate threat - a well-recognized hazard, examples of which are the North Korean attack on South, a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan. Another type of threat is a potential threat. For example, the emergence of a new hostile military coalition against the United States or its allies, in which one or more members has weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. Finally, the third group consists of unexpected threats - sudden and unpredictable security challenges, like the Cuban missile crisis. This may be a sudden change of the regime, as a result of which the existing nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of a new hostile steering group. In the United States believes that North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Libya - countries that may be relevant to the immediate, potential or unexpected threats. China is a country that can be immediate or potential threat. With respect to Russia in the document does not say what kind of threat it may represent. This is due, firstly, the fact that Russia is facing a lot of problems, and for this reason, the United States believes that its future course can not be delineated with certainty. Second, Russia's nuclear forces continue to cause concern in Washington. The presence of these two opposing factors explains the use of vague wording in the document: a threat with Russian participation is not expected, although it is possible. Nevertheless, the idea that when planning the use of U.S. strategic forces of the Cold War approaches based on threats, replaced by approaches based on capabilities, suggests that Russia continues to be regarded as one of the most likely sources of military danger. In fact the point is that Russia might pose to the United States a certain obstacle to the implementation of expansionist designs that are now truly limitless. Besides, the Russian-American relations are very peculiar. The Russia is no longer the enemy but also is far from being a partner. The possibility of partnerships emerged after the terrorist attacks on America in September 2001, when the parties have expressed their willingness to cooperate in the fight against terrorism, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), energy issues and the strengthening of international political institutions. With the disappearance of the ideological image of the enemy, and outlined the common interests looming prospect of military and economic partnership. In fact, despite the remaining elements of cooperation, for example in the field of exchange of information and intelligence on terrorism or preventing the spread of WMD, mutual exclusion and rivalry have not disappeared. United States and Russia are not "classical" enemies, but can not be considered partners. In the American political class, many of those who question the desirability of such cooperation at all, insisting on isolating Russia and returning to a strategy of deterrence. It is in this vein is permissible to consider the calls to exclude Russia from the "Group of Eight", to prohibit private investment in this country, or to recognize the independence of Chechnya and other autonomous republics within the Russian Federation.

     Carrying on with the possible trends in the international arena.  In the East, the military-political situation characterized by increased competition for leadership in the region between the U.S., Japan and China. This is primarily due to the increasing role of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) on the global economy. Geopolitical situation that is developing there is currently not in favor of Russia, which greatly weakened its position in the region. This is due to the unprecedented growth of China's economic power and its economic rapprochement with Japan, as well as the development of military-political alliance of Japan and the United States. China is in the stage of dynamic development is emerging as a great power with a powerful economic and military potential and unlimited human resources. China's economy is one of the fastest growing in the world. However, its remains largely as an extensive and high-cost, requiring more and more natural resources. And they are quite limited in China, specialty water shortages [6]. Subsoil of Siberia and of the Far East - are almost inexhaustible. This may be an incentive for China's territorial claims to Russia.

Strengthening competition for leadership between the regional centers of power (China and Japan) and the U.S. in this region will have a decisive influence on the development of the military-political and military-strategic situation. Washington, Tokyo and Beijing will continue to treat Moscow as a potential regional rival and might try to oust the Russian Federation to address major regional military-political problems.

Analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that the intense process of strengthening the new centers of power near the borders of Russia is activated confrontation over access to natural, energy, science and technology, human and other resources of the former Soviet Union. At the turn of the 2020s. Russia could become the main arena of struggle for sources of raw materials and other natural resources. 
From the above it follows that there must be an effective system of opening of military threats, rapid and flexible response, a reliable system of military security of the Russian Federation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Military security

Military security - it is an integral part of, an essential component of national security, which determines the state of the country's defense and its ability to protect national interests by means of armed violence. It describes the ability of States to counter the rise of the war, the involvement in the war, and in the case of its occurrence - to minimize the damage and devastating consequences for the country's national security.

To maintain the military security of Russia's military capabilities required to maintain at a level sufficient for the defense in the event of a crisis in the immediate proximity to the border. The required level of military security is achieved in the presence of the entire complex structural components as a purely military as well as political, diplomatic, economic, ideological, and others, focused and coordinated efforts of state institutions.

Political and diplomatic component of military security is guaranteed by: a high level of the collective (international) security of the state of integration in the military-political alliances; acceptable ratio of military and political power in the world; guaranteed the implementation of international treaties and agreements which count with the Russian participation, continued development of the international arms control and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.

The economic component of military security include: material and financial resources to ensure the defense of the country, the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the Armed Forces and other troops, the military-industrial complex, which provides all the necessary army, navy and other forces, creates a mobilization reserve of weapons and military equipment, scientific and technical capacity to create new types of weapons and military equipment; mobilization capabilities of industry to ensure that, if necessary, supply the Armed Forces and other troops required quantity of weapons and military equipment.

The military component includes a military organization, created to ensure the military security of relying on military force. 
It assumes the existence of certain quantitative and qualitative indicators, which include: the number of the Armed Forces with control systems and software, other troops, military formations and bodies, the level of training of the troops and the forces that affect their combat capability and combat readiness, technical equipment of the Armed Forces and other forces (military equipment, ammunition, military equipment), the presence of stocks of weapons and military equipment contained in the arsenals, bases and warehouses, the state of the military infrastructure (stationary objects) that are designed to provide training of troops (forces), the strategic and operational deployment and conduct of military operations.